When Erdogan in 2017 went from being prime minister to president of Turkey, it divided a polarized country even more. But it did not only divide, but it also seems like the people of Turkey, in some regions, have turned its faith against the opposition party CHP.
By Andreas Friis & Magne Kaae
In Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and Adana the mayor belongs to CHP. For the first time in more than 25 years The Justice and Development Party (from here on referred to as AKP), led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is not in charge of the two biggest cities in Turkey, Istanbul, and Ankara.
Erdogan’s Turkey has long been a nation with an extremely politically divided population, where Erdogan has been catering to the conservative and religious Turks. Now, however, Erdogan’s success seems to be dwindling, giving hope to his opponents.
At the latest local election in 2019, Erdogan’s party, The Justice and Development Party (AKP), lost some of the larger cities. This was a hit on Erdogan’s grasp on Turkey.
For some Turks, there is a very specific reason why Erdogan suffered this defeat last year.
“The 2017 referendum changed it for me, the vote turned Turkey into a one-man regime. He can overrule the parliament, he doesn’t need the people to make decisions anymore,”
Says Gökhan Muchu, one of the Turks living in Denmark with split citizenship between Denmark and Turkey.
Gökhan Muchu is backed by Michael S. Lund, Middle-east correspondent for Danish Broadcasting Corporation, based in Istanbul.
“It shows, that there are some cracks in Erdogan’s foundation. It marks the first time in 25 years, that Erdogan and his followers have lost Istanbul and Ankara. That is important,”
The 2017 referendum changed Turkey’s political system, it replaced the existing parliamentary system with an executive presidency and a presidential system.
But this is just a quick explanation, watch the video below to completely understand the change Turkey went through with the referendum.
The story of Erdogan’s rise to power is long and complicated, but his rise to the national top happened in 2002 when he was elected as prime minister. AKP´s platform catered especially to the conservative and religious Turks, who had felt suppressed for a long time.
”If you were religious before Erdogan, you were in many ways suppressed. For example, if you wanted to make something of yourself as a woman, you had to lose the hijab,” says Michael Lund, and continues: “Erdogan wanted and still wants Islam to play an important role. He made it legal to wear a hijab at universities, in the parliament and many other places,”
In many ways, Erdogan was what a lot of Turks wanted, and in the same way what a lot of Turks absolutely did not want.
“Erdogan stands for something entirely different than the one before him. For many conservative and religious Turks, Erdogan stands as the one who saved the Muslim identity from all the secular pagans,” says Michael Lund.
One of those, who support Erdogan, is 34-year old Isam Özgul from Izmir. For him, Erdogan’s care for Islamic Turks is very important.
Photo: Magne Kaae
“The ones who don’t like Turkey, want to make prohibitions on religion. I support Erdogan since he has done well in Turkey. He has accomplished so much good,” says Isam Özgul.
Extreme polarisation
An important factor key to understanding the political landscape of Turkey is just how divided the country is.
“What you see in Turkey is extreme. The polarisation of Turkey is extreme compared to Europe,” says Michael Lund, who sees the polarisation every single day. “I live in Istanbul. If I go 500 meters down the road, I’ll be standing in a neighborhood where everyone supports Erdogan. If I go the other way, I’ll be standing in a neighborhood where everyone supports the opposition. It’s two completely different worlds.”
He also mentions the 2017 referendum, which was voted in with only 51 percent of the votes, making it an extremely tight win, as one of the easiest ways to spot this factor, as well as the local elections in 2019, where some of the most important cities were won over with the bare minimum of votes differentiating.
“The elections in Turkey are extremely close and by no means, landslide wins,” says Michael Lund.
Even though the cities and regions in themselves are extremely divided, a quick glance at a map also shows this polarisation and how it intertwines. Notice how the patterns almost follow each other on the following two maps showing election results and income. Michael Lund exemplifies the sectionalization the following way:
“If you take a look on the West coast, they have had much more interaction through trade with Europe than central Turkey, which has obviously made its mark on these areas.”
From democratic to an autocratic system
Erdogan held the position as prime minister for a little more than 11 years until he became president in 2014, a role that was said to only be ceremonial. This all changed, however, with the aforementioned referendum in 2017. The referendum granted Erdogan a lot of power and authority, changing the supposed ceremonial position to a much more powerful one.
Erdogan has used these powers several times over the past few years to suppress his political opponents and the press. This is in stark contrast to several of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals introduced by the UN, of which Turkey is a member state. It clearly violates the 16th goal, which states that the member states must work to secure freedom rights for the people, strong and transparent institutions, and make way for fair and free decision-making.
This concerns Michael Lund.
“Turkey has been a good example for a long time, but now you see the freedom rights being enjoined,” says Michael Lund.
This, though, is of no concern to Isam Özgul, who welcomes more power to Erdogan and does not care that the political system conflicts with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
“The constitutional amendment is good. Erdogan has proven he makes Turkey a better place. He has done well for everyone. He is so clever, he knows everything, he sees everything. He is a great politician,” says Isam Özgul.
Gridlock politics
Not everyone is as happy as Sami Özgul when it comes to how Turkey is led.
“The political system is locked, Erdogan controls it. He does what he wants to,” says Huran, who does not want his full name to appear in this article. He says “The state censors, if you express anything negative online the police will be there in two days. I do not want that,”
Huran is a part of the Kurdish minority in Turkey, a minority that historically has been suppressed in the region.
He says that it is not like he has any specific political ideas himself or supports anyone, but he still feels that the path Turkey has taken with Erdogan is the wrong one.
“People are so different in Turkey. Some fears the system while the rest loves all of it,” says Huran.
In Huran´s opinion, there is not much hope that there will be a change in how Turkey is led anytime soon.
“No one can do anything since Turkeys politicians are like a flock of sheep. If someone of high rank says something, people just listen and support,” he says.
A slow development
Even though nothing is changing fast in Turkey, Michael Lund sees the local elections as important.
“The elections in the major cities were very close. They were not big wins, but they are some very important votes, that have tipped to the opposition.”
According to him, there is a very simple explanation for the slow change.
“The demography is evolving in the cities. The youth that grows up in the big cities is way less conservative, less religious. They do not take part in the religious mobilization Erdogan stands for,” he explains.
Even though it seems like there has been a reaction to the referendum from 2017, it is still difficult to foresee what Turkey will become. Michael Lund will follow the country’s development closely.
“The interesting thing in all of this is whether Turkey is transforming from a roughly working democracy in the region, to becoming an authoritarian state. Will it become a dictatorship or is the country to developed, educated, and rich?”